3,800 passenger aircrafts needed by 2028

Release Date: 2009-09-24

The Aviation Expo/China 2009 opens in Beijing yesterday, attracting over 200 exhibitors and more than 17,000 professional visitors from around the world.

The domestic airfleet will require 3,800 new passenger aircrafts, more than double the size of the current fleet, by 2028, a report issued on Wednesday by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) said.

AVIC's report, released at the Aviation Expo/China 2009, which started yesterday, comes days after Boeing predicted the industry would need 3,770 new airplanes valued at $400 billion over the next 20 years.

The projections detailed the specific needs of the industry. Altogether 3,796 passenger aircrafts including 2,922 large and medium-sized jets and 874 regional planes are expected to be added to the fleet by 2028.

In 20 years, the size of the passenger aircraft fleet will be up to 4,233, including 3,327 large passenger aircrafts and 906 regional aircrafts with less than 100 seats. While the civil freight fleet will be up to 583 airplanes, said the report.

The revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), a way of measuring passenger traffic, will increase annually by 8.2 percent to 1.38 trillion RPK by 2028, said the report, adding the freight ton-kilometers will see an annual growth of 10.2 percent to 82.75 billion ton-kilometers over the same period.

The forecast takes into account a complex set of external factors, including the financial crisis, A/H1N1 influenza, and airlines mergers and acquisitions, said Liao Quanwang, a researcher from AVIC Development Research Center at the meeting.

Furthermore, Liao added the construction of railways between major cities has been a challenge towards the development of air transportation.

Currently, a big part of the 4-trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package is going to infrastructure such as airports, railways and highways, but infrastructure should develop in terms of local need, said Liao.

"Compared with eastern regions, it is better for the western to develop air transportation because of their smaller population and larger amounts of land. Service between cities more than 1,000 kilometers apart should be left to the aviation industry," said Liao.

The four-day show attracted over 200 exhibitors from 14 countries and regions, including Boeing, Airbus, and Bombarider. The Newly established Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, as one of the organizers, unveiled the C919, its flagship aircraft, for the first time at a Beijing exhibition.

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Url:	http://business.globaltimes.cn/industries/2009-09/471197.html