European airlines' traffic drop in 2009 likely to surpass 4%, Association of European Airlines – AEA

Release Date: 2009-12-23

With ten months of hard data in place, and weekly indicators up to mid-December, the Association of European Airlines reports that the year-end total for passenger traffic is most certain to be in excess of 4% down on an already-depressed 2008 figure

The latest monthly figures produced by AEA for October continue to show a decrease in passenger-kilometres, of 2.0%, marking a complete 12-month cycle of traffic losses.

In October, the relatively small mid-Atlantic market was the hardest hit, at minus 6.1%, followed by Far Eastern traffic at minus 4.3%.
A notable feature of the October figures was a 5.5% reduction in capacity. October was the last month of the summer slot waiver, allowing airlines to withdraw capacity without jeopardising airport-slot entitlements. The outcome has been effective in mitigating some of the worst effects of the traffic downturn, reducing the number of empty seats in the market by an estimated 6.5 million, and in the process saving some
3.6 million tonnes of CO2 emissions.

More recent results from AEA’s weekly returns point to 2009 traffic finally climbing above the heavily-depressed 2008 levels in mid-November, although the final results for November will show yet another decrease. Just as interestingly, the moderation in
capacity has lessened in the absence of an extension of the slot waiver into the Winter period.

By mid-December, AEA traffic for the year-to-date stood at 4.3% below the 2008 level, a figure which is unlikely to change more than marginally when the yearly figures are compiled.

Said AEA Secretary General Ulrich Schulte-Strathaus: “2009 has been a disastrous year for European airlines, but the traffic and capacity figures tell less than half the story. The real damage has been inflicted by the collapse in revenues, to which falling
ticket prices, particularly in the premium-travel segment, have contributed far more than depressed traffic levels”.

“The marginal traffic increases we are beginning to see will scarcely impact our revenue base as long as yields continue to wallow around 15% below last year’s levels. The only effective source of relief is in mitigating costs and a number of service providers are already putting up their tariffs for next year, knowing that the continue to deal with temporary overcapacity in the market, through slot flexibility, seems to be lacking”.

Type:	NORMAL
Company:	Association of European Airlines – AEA
Country:	Belgium